Hillary Clinton made history, but that may not be enough to get her to 270. Some Democrats are still worried that Donald Trump might win, given the level of volatility this election cycle, how Trump deflects media attacks like Teflon, and the high level of Democratic discontent within their own ranks over Clinton’s nomination. Those feelings were intensified when leaked emails from the Democratic National Committee showed staffers trying to find ways to derail Sen. Bernie Sanders’ campaign. The amount of booing, even during Clinton’s acceptance speech Thursday night just highlighted those divisions within the Democratic Party.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, Clinton’s chances for winning the presidency dropped over 20 points in the past two weeks. In fact, if the election were held today, Trump would be the next president. Even in the forecasts where historic and economic data is factored in, Clinton’s chances had fallen by 15 points between July 12 and 25, a drop from 73 percent to 59 percent. It’s now 61, so it’s a 12-point dip…in a little over two weeks.
It also doesn’t help that Trump and the Republican National Convention got better ratings on their final night of the convention than the Democrats. Katie wrote that even former Obama adviser David Axelrod thought Clinton’s acceptance speech was not very good. These are both very flawed, and very polarizing candidates. Yet, Trump is trusted more than Clinton, though that’s not to say his numbers in this character test are great—they’re not. But he is seen as more honest than her. When the State Department Inspector General released his report about Clinton’s email system—and how she never sought approval (among other things), despite her claims to the contrary—Trump was viewed as more honest by a two-to-one margin.
In key battleground states, most voters see Trump as the main guy who could shake things up in Washington, though that hasn’t been translated into firm definite support for the billionaire. If that moves, there’s definitely going to be a surge in support for Trump, which could spell trouble for Clinton. Right now, the Democratic Party has the grapple with a fractured party, a weak candidate, and a series of hacks into their party apparatus that continues to trip them up—and air dirty laundry in the process. It’s very possible Clinton could lose—and for love of God I hope she does.