Robert Gehl reports Donald Trump took a solid lead in the most recent poll, topping Hillary Clinton 43 percent to 39 percent.
The four-point advantage in the Rasmussen poll is outside the 3 percent margin of error, so it’s considered a legitimate lead. This is the first major poll to give Trump a lead since mid-May and may show a shift in the electorate.
In the poll, 12 percent still preferred another candidate and five percent were undecided. That 17 percent could swing either way.
One week ago, Clinton had a five-point lead over Trump, so Trump has risen almost ten points in one week.
Trump collects 75 percent support among Republicans and 14 percent from Democrats. On the other side, 76 percent of Democrats support Hillary Clinton and 10 percent of GOP voters support her. This level of defection is rare in presidential politics, but demonstrates the general unhappiness with both candidates.
Clinton appears to have emerged relatively unscathed from the release this week of the House Select Committee on Benghazi’s report on her actions as secretary of State in connection with the murder of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans by Islamic terrorists in September 2012.
Trump made a major speech on jobs and trade on Tuesday that even the New York Times characterized as “perhaps the most forceful case he has made for the crux of his candidacy …. that the days of globalism have passed and that a new approach is necessary.” Some also speculate that last week’s vote in Great Britain to leave the European Union signals a rise of economic nationalism that is good for Trump. Despite the media panic and market swings that have resulted, Americans are not particularly worried that the “Brexit” will hurt them in the pocketbook.
You’ll recall in the last week, there have been two prior polls – one showing Hillary with a 12-point lead and another showing a statistical dead heat. We exposed how many of these polls are manipulated to achieve the result the media wants. The poll showing Hillary with a 12-point lead, for example, over-sampled Democrats by TEN percent.
So who’s ahead? It’s still more than four months out – it seems like it’s probably too close to call right now.