GOP nominee Donald Trump would win the White House were the election held today, according to a forecast published Monday by the statistics-based newsgroup FiveThirtyEight.com.
The predictive model showed the billionaire businessman besting presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent.
FiveThirtyEight.com’s “now-cast,” which answers the question, “Who would win the election today,” also showed Trump winning several crucial swing states, including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The forecast predicted Clinton would pick up only one swing state, Virginia.
The “now cast” model also predicted Trump would beat Hillary in electoral votes — 285 to 252.6 — and that he would win in the popular vote by 45.4 percent to 45.1.
However, there are still two separate election models available on FiveThirtyEight.com showing Clinton winning the 2016 election.
The site’s “polls-only” model shows the former secretary of state winning 53.7 percent to 46.2 percent, and the group’s “polls-plus” forecast, which predicts the outcome on Nov. 8 based on the economy, current polling data and historical trends, showed her winning 58.2 percent to 41.7.
Still, the “now cast” model flies in the face of months of media analyses and predictions, which have stated boldly that Trump has zero chance of winning the 2016 election.
FiveThirtyEight.com’s founder, Nate Silver, who has long held the 2016 election would favor Clinton, has also become far more cautious in recent weeks, and is now open to the idea of a Trump victory in November.
“Don’t think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It’s a close election right now,” he said last week on social media.